Poll Way Aggregate: ALP 50.8%, L/NP 49.2%

Well, August has rolled around so it’s about time for a new Poll Way Aggregate. Since our last look at political polling on 16 July we’ve had a brace of new polls come in while fights over asylum seekers, cars, the budget and carbon pricing have kicked off or continued.

As always, polls older than one calendar month have been excluded, as have polls that fall outside the margin of error of subsequent polls from that same House. The polls used in the most recent Aggregate are below, including a total of 20,116 respondents:

HOUSE

DATE

ALP   (2PP)

L/NP (2PP)

Newspoll

5-7/7/2013

50%

50%

Nielsen

11-13/7/2013

50%

50%

Essential

11-14/7/2013

48%

52%

Morgan (Multi)

12-14/7/2013

52.5%

47.5%

ReachTEL

18/07/2013

49%

51%

Morgan (Multi)

19-21/7/2013

52.5%

47.5%

Newspoll

19-21/7/2013

48%

52%

Galaxy

23-25/7/2013

50%

50%

Essential

25-28/7/2013

49%

51%

Morgan (Multi)

26-28/7/2013

52%

48%

Since the last Aggregate, the ALP has had a slight uptick of less than 1 per cent, which really suggests that there has been no real change. The narrative in the media over the last two weeks regarding polling has largely been that Labor’s momentum has stalled, and while that’s one way to read these numbers, the other might be that the polls are actually accurately measuring what the electorate’s views are. Under Gillard, Labor was unpopular while under Rudd, Labor is in with a chance – there has been little change because the views of people have been constant.

In the last Aggregate we discussed the effects of the Morgan (Multi) poll, and how it might be over-inflating Labor’s figures. Once again Morgan has been consistently coming in higher than the other polls as seen in both the two-party preferred and primary vote tables:

HOUSE

DATE

ALP 1°

L/NP 1°

GRN 1°

‘Other’ 1°

Newspoll

5-7/7/2013

38%

42%

9%

11%

Nielsen

11-13/7/2013

39%

44%

9%

8%

Essential

11-14/7/2013

39%

46%

7%

8%

Morgan (Multi)

12-14/7/2013

42%

41%

7%

10%

ReachTEL

18/07/2013

39.3%

45.4%

8.3%

7%

Morgan (Multi)

19-21/7/2013

41.5%

41%

9%

8.5%

Newspoll

19-21/7/2013

37%

45%

10%

8%

Galaxy

23-25/7/2013

40%

44%

9%

7%

Essential

25-28/7/2013

39%

44%

9%

8%

Morgan (Multi)

26-28/7/2013

38.5%

41.5%

10.5%

9.5%

The thing is, though, despite being consistently higher, Morgan is consistent. As are all the polls with their usual House biases. Other analyses of polls adjust for these perceived biases while we at the Poll Way avoid doing so for fear of introducing our own bias. As the numbers come in, we’ll just put them up. That being said, a less than 2 point spread in the 2PP scores is consistent with most of the polls as well as analyses done elsewhere. The only story that anyone can anyone can confidently tell is that it’s close, very close. The Poll Way’s own numbers, however, do detect a small swing to the ALP at both a two-party preferred and primary vote level with primary vote scores coming in at: ALP 39.8%, L/NP 42.8%, GRN 8.8% and ‘Other’ 8.7%.

The primary vote shows almost 1 for 1 stability for the Coalition and Green votes from the last aggregate, with a movement of 1% to the ALP coming almost exclusively from the ‘Other’ column - probably as disenfranchised non-lefty voters come back to Labor after flirting with third parties and independents.

Anecdotally, there are stories of many traditional Labor voters who were turned off by Julia Gillard but who wouldn’t vote Liberal or Green and who were attracted to start-ups like Katter et al. They clearly exist and they are coming back to Labor.