Poll Way Aggregate: ALP 50.2%, L/NP 49.8%

Welcome to the Poll Way’s new home on the internet. We’ve finally moved into our new digs and we have to say, conducting our business on these new-fangled intarwebs is quite the excitement.

With the release of this week’s Nielsen poll, something in the order of 21,000 Australians have now been polled nationally since the election of Kevin Rudd as Labor leader by caucus on 26 June. Nielsen is also the last of the 5 major polling houses in Australia to release results since Kevin Rudd’s return as leader, which the Poll Way is marking by conducting it’s first Aggregate since the new regime.

As always, the Aggregate represents a weighted average of all polls, excluding every second Essential poll (to avoid double counting samples included in their rolling two week averages), any polls that fall outside of the margin of error of that house’s subsequent polls, and any poll older that one calendar month after it was completed. For the purposes of the Aggregate, Morgan polls using different techniques are treated as different polls. These criteria give us a sample size of 15,524 electors. Two party preferred results are given below.

HOUSE

DATE

ALP (2PP)

L/NP (2PP)

Morgan (SMS)

26/6/2013

49.5%

50.5%

ReachTEL

27/6/2013

48%

52%

Galaxy

27-28/6/2013

49%

51%

Newspoll

28-30/6/2013

49%

51%

Essential

4-7/7/2013

48%

52%

Morgan (Multi)

5-7/7/2013

54.5%

45.5%

Newspoll

5-7/7/2013

50%

50%

Nielsen

11-13/7/2013

50%

50%

The first thing you’ll notice about the above table is that despite the excitement created in the community around Kevin Rudd’s return, most of the polls since 26 June have come in in favour of the Coalition, which would give us a straight two party preferred average of ALP 49.75% and L/NP 50.25%. However, the Morgan (Multi) poll in the above table comes in heavily for Labor and, with a sample size of over 3,500 respondents, tilts the Poll Way Aggregate in favour of them, ALP 50.2%, L/NP 49.2% – essentially swapping the result of a straight average.

The Poll Way Aggregate has also been calculated for primary vote values.

HOUSE

DATE

ALP (Primary)

L/NP (Primary)

GRN (Primary)

‘Other’ (1°)

Morgan (SMS)

26/6/2013

38%

43%

8.5%

10.5%

ReachTEL

27/6/2013

38.3%

45.1%

8.7%

7.8%

Galaxy

27-28/6/2013

38%

44%

10%

8%

Newspoll

28-30/6/2013

35%

43%

11%

11%

Essential

4-7/7/2013

38%

46%

8%

7%

Morgan (Multi)

5-7/7/2013

41.5%

39.5%

8.5%

10.5%

Newspoll

5-7//2013

38%

42%

9%

11%

Nielsen

11-13/7/2013

39%

44%

9%

8%

Poll watchers will see that the most striking feature of the primary vote is the dramatic recovery of Labor since Kevin Rudd’s reinstallment, shifting Labor out of the high 20s and into the high 30s – a base from which they can contest an election. Having said that, though, the Coalition primary vote looks relatively secure. There has been an initial drop since June 26, however it is not by as much as Labor’s has increased and has remained stable since. This makes the Morgan (Multi) results appear even more curious, as they have the Coalition dropping below 40%, and even have Labor ahead on primary. This seems an unlikely proposition given both historical results and other polling data coming through. We’ll see what changes flow through as more data comes in over time.

The Poll Way has not had a good look at the relative values of the Green and ‘Other’ primary votes over time, however a cursory glance suggests that the Green vote is remaining stable and the ‘Other’ vote is declining slightly. This is not unexpected given the Greens supporter base and the rebuilding of Labor’s primary vote – those votes have to come from somewhere. Bob Katter and Clive Palmer might have to hold their horses, or hats, or whatever, for a while longer yet.

Having said all that, the Poll Way Aggregate primary votes are as follows: ALP 38.1%, L/NP 43%, GRN 8.8%, Other 9.2%.

Leave a Reply